The rise of anarchy in America is an interesting phenomenon. It is unlikely that this phenomenon is related to ideology because of clear contradictions. It is rather related to stock market performance after Brexit and the US elections. This is a testable hypothesis.

There is an apparent contradiction in the behavior of anarchists in America. From one hand, they appear to support gay rights and the right to choose but on the other hand they also support immigration from countries where these rights simply do not exist. If the percent of the population in America in favor of those who do not support these rights increases, then their purpose will be defeated and they will have essentially assisted the far right in its cause.

These are serious contradictions. When there is a contradiction in a system, it means that the principles it is based on are causing that. Therefore, the assumption that the anarchy groups are motivated by ideology is probably wrong. How can someone be motivated by ideology and act in ways that defeat it?

If the assumptions are wrong then there is some other motivation for the eruption of violence in America after the US elections. The hypothesis made here is that it is related to stock market performance. Let us first look at a chart of the most popular index in US stocks market, the S&P 500.

Brexit_elections

The news media and many hedge funds were expecting a collapse of the stock market after Brexit, an event marked on the above chart. Well-known hedge fund managers, analysts, politicians and economists thought that was a highly negative event, also called a left tail event by statisticians. They were wrong and the market railed after Brexit, save a brief decline.

The fund managers probably thought the rally was temporary and they doubled down, causing a small decline into the November election. The predictions again by mostly the same people was that the stock market will crash if Republicans win. But it did not and to their surprise the market rallied to new all-time high prices. Many stocks, especially in the banking sector and technology, moved up parabolically.

Obviously, those who have placed large bets on a market decline after Brexit went deep into the red. First we can speculate why they were wrong. Then we will state the hypothesis.

These hedge fund managers, analysts and reporters were wrong because of ego bias. They think they know everything and they have a false sense of omniscience. I am a philosopher but I believe I understand markets better than them. The stock market is to a large extent controlled by large passive index funds where the retirement money of a large percentage of the population is invested. In reality the short bets before Brexit aimed at profiting from retirement money losses. But the funds that invest the retirement money are huge and can squeeze out speculators maybe with a little help from the central bank. This is what happened to those mindless speculators with the huge ego, bias and the expensive analysis departments that always try to satisfy the boss. They tried to make it big and lost big. They are not the first, nor the last.

The hypothesis is that some of these speculators in red are now financing anarchy for the purpose of creating turmoil to cause stock market decline and recoup their losses. But they are going to lose again for the same reasons. We should expect soon to hear about large speculative funds going underwater and closing.

When there are serious contradictions there is something wrong about assumptions and principles. The anarchy in America cannot be related to ideology because of the contradictions mentioned. There are others not mentioned but we only need one major contradiction to demolish a system. The anarchy in America is financed by greed. It is an attempt to create left tail events statisticians talk about to profit from market bets. This is the hypothesis. All hypotheses should be falsifiable to be practical. This is a falsifiable hypothesis because it can be determined whether there were large short positions in the US stock market before or after Brexit. Additional predictions of the hypothesis can also be tested. The data exist and some mining is required.